Title

A STUDY OF AN INTEGRATED INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL

Authors

E Yao
T Morikawa

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2005

Subject Area

operations - traffic, planning - route design, ridership - mode choice, ridership - elasticity, ridership - demand, mode - rail

Keywords

Trip generation, Travel time, Travel models (Travel demand), Travel demand, Travel costs, Traffic models, Traffic generation, Stated preferences, Route selection, Route choice, Revealed preferences, Rail transit, Origin and destination, O&D, Mode choice, Modal shift, Modal choice, Level of service, Journey time, Japan, Intercity travel, Induced travel, High speed trains, High speed rail, Elasticity (Economics), Choice of transportation, Case studies, Accessibility

Abstract

This paper aims to develop an integrated intercity travel demand modeling system suitable for substantial changes in service level. The model utilizes combined estimation across multiple data sources such as stated preference, revealed preference and aggregate data. This integrated intercity travel demand modeling system is characterized by an explicit intercity travel behavioral framework and its ability to capture induced travel. Intercity travel decisions are represented by a nested model structure, and an accessibility measure is introduced to capture short term induced travel (e.g., route switches, mode switches, changes of destination and new trip generation). The paper also sketches a way to estimate induced travel resulting from long term changes (spatial reallocation of activities). As a case study, an integrated model including trip generation, destination choice, mode choice and route choice is presented for an intercity high speed rail project planned in Japan. Short term induced travel elasticities with respect to travel cost and travel time are also presented. The results of induced travel elasticities indicate that induced travel increases with the decreases in travel time, travel cost and access time. The elasticities reported here are substantial and should be verified by further studies.

Comments

Transportation Research Part A Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564