THE DYNAMICS OF HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL TIME EXPENDITURES AND CAR OWNERSHIP DECISIONS

Thomas F. Golob

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

1990

Subject Area

ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, mode - car

Keywords

Variables, Travel time, Travel behavior, Scenarios, Projections, Netherlands, Models, Mathematical models, Journey time, Households, Forecasting, Automobile ownership

Abstract

A dynamic (panel data) structural equations model is developed that links four dependent travel behavior variables at two points in time, one year apart. The four dependent variables are: car ownership, travel time per week by car, travel time by public transit, and travel time by nonmotorized modes. Exogenous variables include 13 household characteristics and variables accounting for period effects over the 1985 to 1987 time frame in the Netherlands. The model treats car ownership as ordered-response probit variables and all travel times as censored (tobit) continuous variables. The model accounts for serially-correlated errors and panel conditioning biases. Results are interpreted in terms of recommendations for forecasting procedures.

Comments

Transportation Research Part A Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

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