Validating the Passenger Traffic Model for Copenhagen
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
2006
Subject Area
operations - traffic, planning - surveys, ridership - mode choice, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - demand, place - urban
Keywords
Urban transit, Trip matrix, Trip matrices, Travel surveys, Travel models (Travel demand), Travel demand, Transit traffic, Transit assignment, Traffic models, Traffic counts, Traffic census, Traffic assignment, Scenarios, Projections, Passenger flow, Model validation, Mode share, Mode choice, Modal split, Modal choice, Kobenhavn (Denmark), Forecasting, Copenhagen (Denmark), Choice of transportation
Abstract
This paper uses data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts to validate the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen. The model was validated for the years 2000–2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen Metro became operational in Fall 2002. The authors observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. However, the model overpredicted metro passenger flows by 10-50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions: (1) a project to upgrade the model’s base trip matrices; and (2) a discussion between researchers and the Ministry of Transport regarding the need to improve the Copenhagen model's assignment procedures and possibly switch to an activity-based paradigm.
Recommended Citation
Vuk, Goran, Hansen, Christian. (2006). Validating the Passenger Traffic Model for Copenhagen. Transportation: Planning, Policy, Research, Practice, Volume 33, Issue 4, pp 371-392.
