Title

Validating the Passenger Traffic Model for Copenhagen

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2006

Subject Area

operations - traffic, planning - surveys, ridership - mode choice, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - demand, place - urban

Keywords

Urban transit, Trip matrix, Trip matrices, Travel surveys, Travel models (Travel demand), Travel demand, Transit traffic, Transit assignment, Traffic models, Traffic counts, Traffic census, Traffic assignment, Scenarios, Projections, Passenger flow, Model validation, Mode share, Mode choice, Modal split, Modal choice, Kobenhavn (Denmark), Forecasting, Copenhagen (Denmark), Choice of transportation

Abstract

This paper uses data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts to validate the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen. The model was validated for the years 2000–2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen Metro became operational in Fall 2002. The authors observed that forecasts from the demand sub-models agree well with the data from the 2000 national travel survey, with the mode choice forecasts in particular being a good match with the observed modal split. The results of the 2000 car assignment model matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. However, the model overpredicted metro passenger flows by 10-50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions: (1) a project to upgrade the model’s base trip matrices; and (2) a discussion between researchers and the Ministry of Transport regarding the need to improve the Copenhagen model's assignment procedures and possibly switch to an activity-based paradigm.