Bus Route Travel Time Reliability Analysis Based on Travelers' Perceptions

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

economics - value of time, mode - bus, place - asia, operations - reliability, planning - service quality


Bus route, Travel time reliability, Perceived travel time, Travel time delay, Monte Carlo


With the rapid development of economy, time of urban residents constantly became more and more valuable, as a key indicator of service performance, travel time reliability has become increasingly important in today’s world as businesses as well as households require on-time transportation for their activities, especially for public transport system. In order to reflect the traveler’s satisfaction degree on bus operating service and route travel time, this paper redefined the bus route perceived travel time and travel time reliability according to traveler’s psychological characteristics, and put forward the travel time reliability modal. Monte Carlo arithmetic is used to estimate the boundary of travel time reliability for heterogeneous risk averse travelers depart off at different time. The proposed travel time reliability not only reveals the service quality of the bus route for bus operation managers, but also provide decision-making basis for travelers to arrange their travel plan. At last, the case study is performed by a typical bus route in Nanjing.


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