Title

Experience conditioning in commuter modal choice modelling – Does it make a difference?

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2016

Subject Area

place - australasia, place - urban, ridership - mode choice, ridership - modelling, ridership - forecasting, ridership - elasticity, ridership - commuting, economics - willingness to pay

Keywords

Experience conditioning, Revealed preferences, Frequency of use, Mode choice, Willingness to pay, Elasticities, Prediction differences

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of decision maker’s experience on model elasticities and predicted market share, using data collected in Sydney on commuter mode choice. Usage frequency is used as a proxy for experience and two separate mode choice models are estimated – one with experience conditioning choice and one without. Key model outputs are compared and we find that differences in the value of travel time savings and model elasticities are very marked. This suggests that ignoring experience that one has with each alternative in their choice set may be a candidate source of error in travel demand forecasts. We develop a method to obtain the level of experience for use in application of choice models to increase their prediction power.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part E Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13665545