Variations in mode-specific valuations of travel time reliability and in-vehicle crowding: Implications for demand estimation

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2017

Subject Area

mode - bus, mode - subway/metro, mode - park and ride, mode - car, economics - willingness to pay, planning - surveys, operations - crowding, operations - reliability, ridership - demand, ridership - mode choice, ridership - modelling

Keywords

Mode-specific WTP, Time multiplier, In-vehicle crowding, Interaction effects

Abstract

This paper presents a two-stage Stated Preference survey to investigate the impacts of travel time reliability and in-vehicle crowding on the mode choice decisions across four different transport modes, i.e. car, metro, park and ride (P&R) and bus. The decisive attributes considered are average travel time, travel time reliability, cost and in-vehicle crowding. Five model specifications are defined for the parameter estimations. Significant interaction effects between in-vehicle crowding and travel time are found. Time multipliers are defined to represent the effects of in-vehicle crowding. In contrast, no evidence could be established for the interaction between in-vehicle crowding and travel time reliability. Results of the mode-specific valuations of travel time reliability and in-vehicle crowding, vary remarkably across the four different transport modes. In the mode-specific models, the range of time multipliers is estimated to be [1.44, 2.00]. Besides, demand estimates would be biased when the mode-specific willingness to pay (WTP) is ignored. For instance, the mode share of metro will be underestimated when its reliability level is high, and vice versa. This suggests that mode-specific WTP of travel time reliability and in-vehicle crowding should be considered in the demand estimations and in the earlier stage of public transport project appraisal.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part A Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

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