Title

FORECASTING TRANSIT WALK ACCESSIBILITY: REGRESSION MODEL ALTERNATIVE TO BUFFER METHOD

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2003

Subject Area

land use - planning, land use - urban design, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - demand, policy - sustainable, place - urban, mode - mass transit, mode - pedestrian

Keywords

Walking distance, Urban design, Transit, Sustainable development, Sustainability, Scenarios, Regression analysis, Regression, Public transit, Projections, Planning, Mass transit, Long range planning, Local transit, Forecasting, Demand, Accessibility

Abstract

A description is given of a methodology for estimating transit walk accessibility at the home end of transit trips and for forecasting transit walk accessibility at the home end for a future year, given forecast population and employment data, transit route information, and type of street configuration. The methodology for estimating transit walk accessibility overcomes the problems associated with natural and man-made barriers such as water bodies and community walls and the problem of uneven distribution of population. A comparison of the results with those from the traditional buffer method, as well as with network ratio methods that consider actual walk distance along streets, showed that both the buffer method and network ratio methods tended to overestimate transit walk accessibility. Regression analysis also showed that the new transit walk accessibility measure was a stronger predictor of transit use than that produced using the buffer method. The methodologies may be applied to transit planning, urban design for sustainable development, and long-range transit demand modeling.