Forecasting Paratransit Services Demand – Review and Recommendations

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

mode - paratransit, planning - travel demand management, ridership - forecasting, ridership - disadvantage, place - north america


Paratransit, demand estimation, ADA, transportation disadvantaged


Abstract Travel demand forecasting tools for Florida’s paratransit services are outdated, utilizing old national trip generation rate generalities and simple linear regression models. In its guidance for the development of mandated Transportation Disadvantaged Service Plans (TDSP), the Florida Commission for the Transportation Disadvantaged (CTD) refers transit planners to the May 1993 “Methodology Guidelines for Forecasting TD Transportation Demand at the County Level” to develop forecasts of transportation disadvantaged populations. This report examines the current demand forecasting procedure, examines samples of other forecasting methods, and details critical factors that should be considered in addressing the development of a new paratransit demand forecasting model. The report concludes with the development of an updated paratransit service demand model and details its application. A dynamic model spreadsheet was developed which requires relatively simple and minimal data inputs by the end user.


Permission to publish the abstract has been given by National Center for Transit Research, copyright remains with them.