Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand
mode - rail, place - asia, ridership - behaviour, ridership - demand, ridership - elasticity, ridership - forecasting, economics - revenue, economics - pricing, operations - scheduling, planning - methods, planning - service level, planning - service improvement
Passenger centric train timetabling problem, Railway demand forecasting, Hybrid cyclicity, Ticket pricing, Revenue
A passenger centric timetable is such a timetable that the satisfaction of the passengers is maximized. However, these timetables only maximize the probability of a passenger to take the train, but provide no insight on the actual choices of the passengers. Therefore, in this manuscript we replace the deterministic passenger satisfaction function with a probabilistic demand forecasting model inside of the passenger centric train timetable design. The actual forecasts lead to a realistic train occupation. Knowing the train occupation, we can estimate the revenue and to use pricing as a mobility management to further improve the level-of-service. We use a logit model that we calibrate to reflect the known demand elasticities. We further include a competing operator as an opt-out option for the passengers. Subsequently, we integrate the passenger centric train timetabling problem with a ticket pricing problem. We solve the elastic passenger centric train timetabling problem for various types of timetables using a simulated annealing heuristic on a case study of Israeli Railways. The results of our case study show that the generated revenues can be increased by up to 15% when taking into account the passengers’ behavior along with a specific pricing scheme. This study further confirms the advantages of hybrid cyclicity.
Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.
Robenek, T., Azadeh, S.S., Maknoon, Y., de Lapparent, M., & Bierlaire, M. (2018). Train timetable design under elastic passenger demand. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 111, pp. 19-38.