Time for hydrogen buses? Dynamic analysis of the Hong Kong bus market
mode - bus, place - asia, place - urban, technology - alternative fuels, technology - emissions, infrastructure - fleet management, infrastructure - vehicle, economics - subsidy, policy - environment
hydrogen buses (H-buses), electric bus (E-buses), carbon neutrality
The tradeoff between hydrogen buses (H-buses) and electric bus (E-buses) is an important issue in public transportation electrification. This study investigated the feasibility and policy implications of Hong Kong achieving its goal of carbon neutrality via a competitive bus-market mechanism. First, we established a dynamic bus-market evolution model by using the system dynamics method to adopt a generalized Lotka–Volterra model and discrete choice model. We then applied the model to the case of Hong Kong and tested various policies. The results showed that (1) relying on business-as-usual policies and market evolution may result in only 66% of Hong Kong’s bus fleet being zero-emission by 2050; (2) long-term subsidies for H-bus purchases and support for hydrogen stations are effective for H-bus market; (3) carbon tax may not be effective owing to its small proportion of total cost; and (4) policymakers should consider the delay effect of advocacy for green consumption.
Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.
Wang, Z., Yu, J., Li, G., Zhuge, C., & Chen, A. (2023). Time for hydrogen buses? Dynamic analysis of the Hong Kong bus market. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 115, 103602.