Title

Stochastic multi-modal transport network under demand uncertainties and adverse weather condition

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2010

Subject Area

mode - bus, mode - car, mode - pedestrian, mode - subway/metro, operations - performance, operations - reliability, ridership - demand, ridership - modelling

Keywords

Multi-modal traffic assignment, Stochastic network, Adverse weather, Demand and supply uncertainties

Abstract

This paper proposes a multi-modal transport network assignment model considering uncertainties in both demand and supply sides of the network. These uncertainties are due to adverse weather conditions with different degrees of impacts on different modes. The paper provides the derivations of mean and variance–covariance of the stochastic passenger flows and dis-utility terms involved in the route/mode choice model under the common-line framework. The risk-averse travelers are assumed to consider both the mean and variance of the random perceived travel time on each multi-modal path in their path choice decisions. The model also considers travelers’ perception errors by using a Probit stochastic user equilibrium framework which is formulated as fixed point problem. A heuristic solution algorithm is proposed to solve the fixed point problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model.

Rights

Permission to publish abstract given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part C Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0968090X