Planning for an Unpredictable Future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

operations - capacity, operations - traffic, land use - planning, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - demand, ridership - growth, policy - environment, policy - congestion, organisation - management, place - urban


White papers, Wales, Urban transportation policy, Urban growth, Trip estimation, Travel models (Travel demand), Travel forecasting, Travel demand, Transportation policy, Transportation planning, Traffic models, Traffic forecasting, Traffic estimation, Traffic congestion, Traffic capacity, Socioeconomic development, Scotland, Scenarios, Regulatory policy, Regional planning, Projections, Population forecasting, Pollutants, Policy, Policies, Passenger transportation, National Transport Model (United Kingdom), Long range planning, Highway planning, Highway capacity, Gridlock (Traffic), Government policy, Forecasting, Environmental policy, Environmental planning, Environmental management, England, Emissions, Economic models, Economic forecasting, Cost effectiveness, City planning


This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency.


Transport Policy Home Page: