A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Urban Metro Demand

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

planning - service quality, ridership - elasticity, ridership - commuting, ridership - demand, place - urban, mode - mass transit, mode - subway/metro


Urban transit, Urban areas, Transit, Service quality, Quality of service, Public transit, Passenger service quality, Panel studies, Mass transit, Local transit, Elasticity (Economics), Demand, Commuting


A dynamic panel model is used to estimate the effect that fares, income and quality of service have on demand for a sample of 22 urban metros. The estimated price elasticity is -0.05 in the short run and -0.33 in the long run. The estimated long run income elasticity is small but positive (0.18), indicating that metros are perceived as normal goods. The quality of service elasticities are positive and substantially higher than the absolute value of fare elasticities. The implication is that quality of service improvements, rather than fare reductions, may be more effective in increasing metro patronage.


Transportation Research Part E Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13665545