Development of Commuter and Non-Commuter Mode Choice Models for the Assessment of New Public Transport Infrastructure Projects: A Case Study

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

infrastructure - busway, ridership - mode choice, ridership - commuting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, mode - bus, mode - rail, mode - tram/light rail, mode - mass transit


Trips, Travel, Transit, Stated choice, Scenarios, Railways, Railroads, Public transit, Projections, Parameters, Mode specific constants, Mode choice, Modal choice, Mathematical prediction, Mass transit, Local transit, Light rail transit, Level of service, Journeys, Infrastructure, Forecasting, Commuting, Choice of transportation, Choice models, Choice experiments, Busways


This paper uses state of the art stated choice designs to parameterise modal choice models for commuting and non-commuting travel futures in the presence of new public transport infrastructure (variations of new heavy rail, light rail and dedicated busway systems). D-optimal choice experiments are developed for a set of labelled modal alternatives in which respondents establish a reference benchmark based on the existing service levels (for access, linehaul and egress trip legs) which is used in a computer aided personal interview instrument to generate future scenarios of service levels for current and prospective new modals options. The authors show that a fully integrated stated choice experiment provides all the information required to obtain behaviourally relevant parameter estimates (within a nested logit framework) for all but the mode-specific constants (MSCs). The MSCs can be calibrated for the current modes within a network model setting, giving the transport planner an appropriate model for predicting the patronage potential for proposed new public transport infrastructure services. A useful by-product is a new set of behavioural values of travel time savings for access, egress, linehaul and wait times.


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