Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

operations - traffic, ridership - mode choice, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, ridership - demand, economics - pricing, mode - mass transit


Variables, Value pricing (Road pricing), Trip generation, Travel models (Travel demand), Travel demand, Transportation policy, Transit, Traffic models, Traffic generation, Traffic distribution, State of the practice, Spatial distribution, Scenarios, Road pricing, Public transit, Projections, Passengers, Mode choice, Modal choice, Mass transit, Logits, Logit models, Local transit, Kobenhavn (Denmark), Forecasting, Copenhagen (Denmark), Choice of transportation, Case studies, Automobile use, Automobile usage, Automobile travel, Accessibility


This paper provides a detailed description of the passenger travel demand model for Copenhagen, which is a state-of-practice model. The model is built in a nested logit structure in which the generation, distribution and mode choice sub-models are connected via the measure of accessibility. In its structure, the model includes a large set of explanatory variables at all three levels. The model forecasting results for 2000 exhibit a very good fit to the observed car and public transport traffic, demonstrating the model's validity. Some model results also closely match the results from other well-established models. The model is applied in a study of road pricing in Denmark to demonstrate how such a policy measure can be modeled as well as the plausible magnitude of changes caused by a road pricing system. In one of the defined scenarios in the case study, the number of vehicle-kilometers dropped approximately 11 percent after assigning the car matrices on the road network, which is in line with results from similar projects.


Transportation Research Part A Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564