THE FUTURE MOBILITY OF THE WORLD POPULATION
operations - traffic, ridership - mode choice, place - urban, mode - bus, mode - rail
Urban population, Travel time, Travel patterns, Travel by mode, Travel budgets, Travel behavior, Transportation modes, Traffic volume, Railroad travel, Modes, Mode choice, Modal choice, Mobility, Land use, Journey time, Highway usage, Highway travel, Choice of transportation, Bus usage, Bus travel, Air travel
In this paper, the authors demonstrate that time and money budgets derived from a person's average travel time and fraction of income are stable and can be used for projecting future levels of mobility and transport mode. The fixed travel money budget requires that mobility rises nearly in proportion with income. Covering greater distances within the same fixed travel time budget requires that travelers shift to faster modes of transport. The choice of future transport modes is also constrained by path dependence because transport infrastructures change slowly. In addition, demand for low-speed public transport is partially determined by urban population densities and land-use characteristics. The authors present a model that incorporates these constraints, which are used for projecting traffic volume and the share of the major motorized modes of transport--autos, buses, trains, and high speed transport (mainly aircraft)--for 11 regions and world through 2050.
Schafer, A, Victor, D, (2000). THE FUTURE MOBILITY OF THE WORLD POPULATION. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 34, Issue 3, p. 171-205.