Time Taken for Residents to Adopt a New Public Transport Service: Examining Heterogeneity through Duration Modelling

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

ridership - modelling, ridership - demand, mode - bus


Travel models (Travel demand), Travel demand, Time duration, Residents, Panel studies, Intracity bus transportation, Crawley (England), Bus usage, Bus travel, Bus transit


Travel demand response to new public transportation services usually is not instantaneous, but rather evolves over time. This paper investigates the timing of responses to new public transport services. A panel survey was organized to coincide with the introduction of a new guided bus service in Crawley, England. Data was obtained from a sample of residents living close to the new service on whether they used the new service and the number of weeks after the service was introduced before they first used it. Duration modeling was used to analyze how the likelihood of starting to use the new service changes over time (after the introduction of the service) and to examine what factors influence this. Results show that residents who have not used the new service are increasingly unlikely to use it as time passes. Those residents gaining greater accessibility benefits from the new service are found to be quicker to use the service, although the size of this effect is modest compared to that of other between-resident differences. A split population model (SPD) model tested for the possibility that there existed a proportion of the sample that would never use the new service. The SPD model indicated that 36% of residents will never use the new service. The methodology and insights from this study can be applied to other contexts.