FSUTMS mode choice modeling: Factors affecting transit use and access

Document Type

Report

Publication Date

2002

Subject Area

planning - signage/information, ridership - mode choice, ridership - forecasting, ridership - forecasting, policy - sustainable, technology - geographic information systems, mode - pedestrian, mode - pedestrian

Keywords

Accessibility, Demographics, Employment, Florida, Forecasting, Geographic information systems, Land use, Level of service, Modal split, Pedestrians, Public transit, Regression analysis, Socioeconomic factors, Supply, Sustainable development, Walking distance

Abstract

This study utilized the transit onboard survey data from the 2000 Southeast Florida Travel Characteristic Study to investigate the needs to incorporate additional variables other than travel time and costs into the modal split model of the Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure (FSUMS) to improve its transit forecasting capability. Factors including land use, demographics, the socioeconomic characteristics of the population, and transit supply were studied using regression analysis. GIS was used extensively for both data compilation and spatial analysis. The study identified a number of transit supply variables as well as population, employment density, and land use mix as strong indicators of transit use. Analysis of transit walk accessibility indicated that transit use beyond one half mile was minimum. A methodology was developed for estimating the percentage of transit service population in a zone, which proved to be a better indicator of transit use than the commonly used buffer method. Regression models that may be used for estimating and forecasting, for a future model year, the percentage of population and workers served by transit were also developed.

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