The demand for public transport trips in the city of Gavle, Sweden - a two stage aggregate, no-linear time-series model

Document Type

Conference Paper

Publication Date


Subject Area

ridership - demand


This project analyses the demand for public transport trips with aggregate time-series monthly data on ticket sales over a long-range time period for the Stockholm and Gavle regions in Sweden. The research task is to test various non-linear functional forms of the demand model. The aim is to estimate which variables influence the demand By using non-linear statistical methods, the magnitude of these factors will be estimated. Similarities and differences in background variables and in the transit demand between the two regions will be examined. The first part of the project was presented for the European Transport Forum in 1998 with the 'Stockholm Model' ("Public Transport Demand Analysis - A two-stage aggregate, non-linear time-series model") for the period 1973 -1996. This paper deals with the City of Gavle model, which is going to be estimated in the spring of 1999. The time-series data base (with monthly data between 1988 - 1998) is almost complete. The following types of dependent and explanatory variables will be examined: Ticket sales & Public transport trips data Fares & Prices & ticket validity variables Activity variables Car competition data Public transport events data Calendar & climate data Public transport level-of-service variables. This research project is sponsored by the Swedish Transport and Communications Research Fund, the Stockholm County Council Office of Regional Planning and Urban Transportation, and the City of Gavle.


Permission to publish abstract given by AET.