The impact of lateness and reliability on passenger rail demand

Authors

Richard Batley
Joyce Dargay
Mark Wardman

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2010

Subject Area

mode - rail, operations - reliability, place - europe, planning - service quality

Keywords

Rail demand, Reliability, Journey time variability, Elasticity, Dynamic

Abstract

To date, forecasts of the demand impacts of lateness and reliability have been derived largely from individual-level models taken at a snapshot in time. The contribution of this paper is to develop a dynamic model of rail demand at the market-level, yielding short and long-run elasticities with respect to lateness. Whereas individual-level models have suggested a high valuation of lateness and reliability, our market-level models indicate a relatively mooted demand response. Reconciling these findings, we reason that, whilst rail travellers show considerable disdain for experiences of lateness, such experiences will not necessarily dissuade them from travelling by train.

Rights

Permission to publish abstract given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part E Home Page: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13665545

Recommended Citation

Batley, R., Dargay, J., & Wardman, M. (2010). The impact of lateness and reliability on passenger rail demand. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Vol. 47, (1), Pp. 61-72.