The impact of lateness and reliability on passenger rail demand

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

mode - rail, operations - reliability, place - europe, planning - service quality


Rail demand, Reliability, Journey time variability, Elasticity, Dynamic


To date, forecasts of the demand impacts of lateness and reliability have been derived largely from individual-level models taken at a snapshot in time. The contribution of this paper is to develop a dynamic model of rail demand at the market-level, yielding short and long-run elasticities with respect to lateness. Whereas individual-level models have suggested a high valuation of lateness and reliability, our market-level models indicate a relatively mooted demand response. Reconciling these findings, we reason that, whilst rail travellers show considerable disdain for experiences of lateness, such experiences will not necessarily dissuade them from travelling by train.


Permission to publish abstract given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.


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