Short‐Term Traffic Flow Forecasting of Urban Rail Transit Based on Fractal Theory

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

mode - subway/metro, place - asia, operations - traffic


urban rail transit, chaotic theory, short-term traffic flow forecasting


Based on the analysis of the short-term traffic flow, this paper aims to explore that the flow has a feather of randomness and nonlinearity, which has the chaotic characteristics meanwhile. As a result, the chaotic theory will probably be used to make a short-term traffic flow forecasting. Fractal interpolation is adopted in the paper to simulate data forecasting, which is based on the original data from Shanghai Metro Line 9. Compared with the actual results, the predicted data is close to it within the error band, which shows that the fractal interpolation can be used in short-term traffic flow forecasting.


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