Impact assessment of extreme weather events on transport networks: A data-driven approach

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

place - europe, ridership - mode choice, planning - network design


Extreme weather events, Impact quantification, Climate change, Resilience of passenger networks


The present paper presents a data-driven method for assessing the resilience of the European passenger transport network during extreme weather events. The method aims to fill in the gap of current research efforts regarding the quantification of impacts attributed to climate change and the identification of substitutability opportunities between transport modes in case of extreme weather events (EWE). The proposed method consists of three steps concerning the probability estimation of an EWE occurring within a transportation network, the assessment of its impacts and the passengers’ flow shift between various transport modes. A mathematical formulation for the proposed data-driven method is provided and applied in an indicative European small-scale network, in order to assess the impacts of EWE on modal choice. Results are expressed in passenger differentiated flows and the paper concludes with future research steps and directions.


Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.


Transportation Research Part D Home Page: