Impact of public bus system on spatial burglary patterns in a Chinese urban context

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

place - asia, place - urban, mode - bus, planning - personal safety/crime


Bus transit, Spatial burglary pattern, Routine activity approach, Crime generator, Crime geography, China



To examine the impact of public bus system on spatial burglary pattern in a Chinese urban context, as well as the spatial variation of this impact.


Local Moran's I, boxplot-based classification, geo-visualization, Chi-square test, and correlation analysis are used to explore the spatial coupling relationships between bus stops and burglary. Guided by routine activity approach, negative binomial regressions are performed for the developed and developing parts of the DP peninsula, as well as the whole peninsula based on proxies of potential offenders, guardians, targets, and spatial dependence.


Statistically positive correlations are observed between burglary count and bus stop service capability. However, net of other factors, one more unidirectional bus route is expected to reduce burglary by nearly 2 percent for the whole area, and 4 percent for the developed area, while no statistically significant relationship is found for the developing area.


The bus-burglary relationships differ between the developed and developing urban areas. For the former, although burglaries concentrate around bus stops with higher service capability, the increase of bus service capability has a net impact of slightly depressing the occurrence of burglaries. Four possible mechanisms explaining this negative bus-burglary relationship in the DP peninsula are presented.


Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.


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