Joint estimation of mode and time of day choice accounting for arrival time flexibility, travel time reliability and crowding on public transport

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

operations - crowding, operations - reliability, economics - willingness to pay, planning - service improvement, planning - service level, ridership - mode choice, ridership - commuting, ridership - demand


MetroScan, Mode and departure time choice models, Travel time reliability, Crowding, Arrival time flexibility, Operational travel demand models


This study develops joint choice models of mode and departure time for implementation in MetroScan, a new version of TRESIS (Hensher and Ton, 2002). Separate models are estimated for work and non-work purposes, testing all practical alternatives of model structure with a rich set of explanatory variables. The contributions of the current work to the existing TRESIS are twofold. First, travel demand for non-work purposes such as shopping, social and recreation are explicitly modelled in MetroScan as opposed to TRESIS that scales the demand for work purposes to obtain non-work travel demand. Second, choices of travel mode and departure time become more sensitive to situational factors such as the flexibility of arrival time, the reliability of travel time and crowding. Willingness to pay for various improvements to the level of service is derived. We describe and demonstrate how the proposed models are applied in the general modelling framework of MetroScan.


Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.


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