Effects of pricing and infrastructure on car ownership: A pseudo-panel-based dynamic model

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date


Subject Area

place - asia, mode - car, mode - rail, economics - pricing, infrastructure, planning - surveys, planning - service improvement


Car ownership, Pseudo panel, Dynamic panel model, Transport pricing and infrastructure


This study investigates households’ car ownership decisions in response to changes in vehicle quota control and transport infrastructure in Singapore. Unlike previous cross-sectional studies, we calibrate a dynamic car ownership model with a pseudo panel constructed from repeated cross-sectional travel surveys, controlling for the persistence of car ownership and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that the tightening of vehicle quota control and improved rail transit accessibility have reduced households’ desire to purchase cars. The long-run effect of these two policies is larger than their short-run effect due to the existence of true state dependence. The impact of expressway-network expansion is insignificant.


Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.


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