Distributional effects of subway fare surges: Evidence from Beijing

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2025

Subject Area

place - asia, place - urban, mode - subway/metro, economics - pricing, policy - fares, ridership - demand, ridership - elasticity, planning - surveys

Keywords

Distributional effects, Price elasticity, Ridership, Subway fare, Transportation mode

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of subway fare increases on ridership and explores the distributional effects across demographic groups. We utilize a natural experiment involving a subway fare surge in China's capital, Beijing. We combine daily subway ridership data by subway lines with household travel survey data collected around the time when fares increased. Based on the regression-discontinuity-in-time research design, we find that the subway fare surge led to a 10.4 % reduction in short-run subway ridership, which corresponds to a price elasticity of −0.090. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that households with higher income, greater travel demand during rush hours, and limited access to other transportation modes have relatively lower price elasticity. We further demonstrate that this price reform brought Beijing subway fares closer to their optimal level. These findings highlight the efficient and distributional consequences of public transit price reforms.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

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