When the Train Never Comes: Property Value Impacts from the Announcement and Cancellation of a Light Rail Project

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2025

Subject Area

place - north america, place - urban, mode - tram/light rail, infrastructure - station, land use - impacts, land use - urban density, land use - transit oriented development

Keywords

Announcement effect, cancellation effect, price capitalization, transit-oriented development

Abstract

Academics and practitioners have long been interested in the potential property value increases associated with new transit investments. The placement of transit stations is not random, however, and often they are placed in locations most likely to experience growth. Therefore, isolating the impacts of the new infrastructure from these confounding factors has been a challenge. In this study, we examine the effect of the announcement and subsequent cancellation of a transit project on sales prices, taking advantage of a unique natural experiment, the Durham Orange Light Rail Transit project. Using a set of closely matched treatment and control properties, we find no evidence of an announcement or cancellation effect on station-adjacent property sales prices. We find evidence, however, that prices in denser areas, closer to the city center tended to appreciate at a higher rate. These findings suggest a shift in demand for living in dense, urban environments, which is often where rail transit stations are located. The results are essential for urban planning as they show that rail transit is planned in growing cities with tight housing markets where properties, including those located in neighborhoods with planned stations, are already on an upward growth trajectory in terms of price.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Taylor&Francis, copyright remains with them.

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