The impact of train accessibility on housing affordability: evidence from COVID-19 and the work-from-home shift

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2025

Subject Area

place - australasia, place - urban, mode - rail, land use - impacts, land use - planning, land use - transit oriented development, ridership - commuting, ridership - demand

Keywords

Housing affordability, Train access, Transport Orientated Program (TOD), Work from home, Property values, Rental affordability

Abstract

This study examines the impact of train accessibility on housing affordability in Sydney, Australia, before, during, and after COVID‑19. Using panel regression and propensity score matching (PSM) to mitigate bias from unobserved neighbourhood heterogeneity and sample selection, we compare housing affordability between train-stop and non-stop suburbs for both house and unit (apartment) markets. Our findings indicate that before COVID‑19, housing affordability was worse in train-stop suburbs relative to non-stop suburbs due to an accessibility premium, particularly for houses. However, the pandemic and the shift towards remote work significantly reduced this premium, resulting in improved purchase affordability in train-stop suburbs for homeowners and investors, particularly for units. Meanwhile, rental affordability for houses in train-stop suburbs improved during and after the pandemic, but not for units. Our findings may influence the effectiveness and design of the government’s Transport‑Oriented Development (TOD) initiatives aimed at increasing unit/apartment supply around major train stations under changing commuting patterns and post-pandemic housing demand.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part A Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

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