Impact of COVID-19 on Experienced Service Reliability Gap and its Changes Over Time in Public Transport
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
2025
Subject Area
place - asia, place - urban, mode - rail, operations - crowding, operations - reliability, ridership - perceptions, technology - intelligent transport systems, technology - ticketing systems
Keywords
public transportation, COVID-19, experienced service reliability gap, machine learning, time series clustering
Abstract
Public transportation travel time reliability is an important issue. The experienced service reliability gap (ESRG) measures reliability based on perceived travel times. COVID-19’s impact on public transportation is still relevant. Therefore, a study investigating COVID-19’s effects on the ESRG seems necessary. This paper also compares the changes in the ESRG with changes in reliability buffer time (RBT), a measure based on nominal travel time, calculated similarly to the ESRG. Tehran’s most crowded bus rapid transit line is examined. We used automatic fare collection and vehicle location data over two time periods: the first week of December 2019 before the pandemic, and the same week of December 2020 during the pandemic (5 workdays). The data analysis relies on time series clustering and the results are interpreted using the Mann–Kendall test, time series decomposition, and passenger loading plots. While the ESRG is often greater than the RBT, their changes over time are similar. However, RBT and ESRG series may differ in that trips originated from origins experienced significant passenger load changes. Also, COVID-19 may cause the ESRG’s changes to resemble that of the RBT. Overall, it seems that the new measure of the ESRG is extremely useful when reliability and interaction with crowding are the primary focus. However, when the purpose is to assess COVID-19’s influence on reliability, it functions more like its nominal counterpart, RBT.
Rights
Permission to publish the abstract has been given by SAGE, copyright remains with them.
Recommended Citation
Shafaati, M., & Saffarzadeh, M. (2025). Impact of COVID-19 on Experienced Service Reliability Gap and its Changes Over Time in Public Transport. Transportation Research Record, 2679(10), 267-295.
