Is bus riding always lower-carbon than driving? Quantifying passenger-level carbon reduction potential for bus travel incentives in China
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
2026
Subject Area
place - asia, place - urban, mode - bus, mode - car, technology - emissions, technology - passenger information, technology - ticketing systems, technology - geographic information systems, policy - sustainable, policy - environment
Keywords
Bus travel, carbon emissions, data-driven, .incentive policy, spatiotemporal variability
Abstract
This study addresses a critical gap in China’s innovative bus-travel carbon incentive policies, which currently lack precision in quantifying per-trip emissions due to methodological limitations in existing approaches. A data-driven paradigm integrating smartcard data, automated bus location data, and online mapping platforms (Gaode Map) is introduced to develop a dynamic per-mode per-capita carbon emission model. This model captures the spatiotemporal variations in carbon savings from bus travel by accounting for two essential factors: operational dynamics (such as real-time speed changes due to traffic congestion) and fluctuations in passenger load (i.e. occupancy rates across different routes and times of day). The resulting framework delivers accurate, trip-level emission estimates, enabling robust comparison with counterfactual private car trips used as a baseline. This provides an empirically grounded basis for designing effective incentive mechanisms. Further analysis reveals considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in emission reductions, with carbon savings varying significantly by time of day and geographic region. These patterns support the design of tailored incentives that account for local and temporal conditions. Notably, the study challenges the prevailing assumption that bus travel is invariably more carbon-efficient than private car use. Instead, findings demonstrate the carbon advantage of bus travel is “conditionally relative,” highly dependent on contextual factors such as occupancy levels. Based on these insights, this study offers targeted recommendations for refining current incentive policies, contributing to smarter, evidence-based sustainable transport strategies both in China and globally.
Rights
Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Taylor&Francis, copyright remains with them.
Recommended Citation
Sun, S., & Liu, X. (2026). Is bus riding always lower-carbon than driving? Quantifying passenger-level carbon reduction potential for bus travel incentives in China. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 20(3), 251-268.
