Resilience assessment of urban bus-metro system to floods under future climate change

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2025

Subject Area

place - asia, place - urban, mode - bus, mode - subway/metro, planning - surveys, planning - methods, planning - environmental impact, land use - impacts

Keywords

Urban bus-metro system, Future climate change, Flood risk, Resilience assessment

Abstract

The urban bus and metro system (UBMS) faces increasing flood threats. Climate change uncertainties and lack of stage-based resilience assessment may misrepresent the impacts on UBMS. Therefore, this study designs a multi-dimensional multi-stage resilience assessment framework. The framework includes a multi-dimensional approach to evaluate flood risk under climate change and a multi-stage model to quantify resilience. The resilience of the UBMS in Chongqing central area under floods is analyzed based on traffic vector data and passenger travel survey data. The results show that flood risk affects 6.9%, 13.1% and 22.6% of the segments in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a decrease in the robustness of the UBMS by 23%, 35% and 53%, respectively, at a risk intensity of 100. Additionally, the impact of cascading failures on the UBMS can be profound and rapid, causing system paralysis that even exceed the direct impact of flooding.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part D Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

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