Coastal storm-induced flooding risk of the New York City subway amid climate change

Authors

• Yuki Miura
• Christine Y. Blackshaw
• Michelle S. Zhang
• Kyle T. Mandli
• George Deodatis

Document Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2025

Subject Area

place - north america, place - urban, mode - subway/metro, planning - methods

Keywords

Flood estimation, Subway systems, New York City, GISSR, Coastal resilience, Sea level rise, Climate change adaptation, Decision making, Operations

Abstract

Coastal areas face worsening storm-induced flooding due to climate change, threatening critical below-ground infrastructure like subway systems, as seen from Hurricane Sandy’s catastrophic impact on New York City (NYC)’s subway system in 2012. Stakeholders must urgently address these risks to protect infrastructure and assets. Simulating future flood scenarios is crucial for estimating flood risk and damage efficiently and for identifying reliable and effective protective measures. This article uses the GIS-based Subdivision-Redistribution (GISSR) methodology, a high-speed, physics-based flood estimation tool, that is now extended to model subway system flooding and associated economic impacts. It identifies flooded tunnels and stations and quantifies indirect economic losses from subway inoperability using an input–output model. The model is validated against observed subway flooding during Hurricane Sandy. Each analysis, covering both above- and below-ground flooding in Lower Manhattan, takes less than 90 s on a single 4-core Intel Core i7-13620H CPU machine. Scenario analyses were conducted with NYC stakeholders, incorporating sea level rise projections and various protective measures. Results, benchmarked against NYC’s ongoing resiliency projects, demonstrate the effectiveness of adaptation/protective strategies, particularly when subway system-specific and coastal measures are combined, highlighting the model’s value as a practical guide for stakeholders.

Rights

Permission to publish the abstract has been given by Elsevier, copyright remains with them.

Comments

Transportation Research Part D Home Page:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Recommended Citation

Miura, Y., Blackshaw, C. Y., Zhang, M. S., Mandli, K. T., & Deodatis, G. (2025). Coastal storm-induced flooding risk of the New York City subway amid climate change. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 149, 104974.